Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is going to present the new budget in the Lok Sabha a day later on Tuesday. This will be the full budget for the financial year 2024-25 and the first budget of the third term of the Modi government. However, the market looks indifferent today before the budget. The market movement has been seen in a limited range in trading from morning to afternoon. Let us know how the stock market may move tomorrow on the day of the budget?
Today’s trend of Sensex and Nifty
Before that, if we talk about the present, at 12 noon, the BSE Sensex was almost flat and was trading near 80,550 points with a loss of 0.064 percent. The Sensex started trading today with a fall of about 200 points at 80,408 points. The NSE Nifty50 index was also almost stable near 24,525 points in the afternoon trade.
The market has been falling since the last 4 budgets
If we look at the historical data of the performance of the stock market on the day of the budget, a negative picture of recent years comes to the fore. It has been seen for the last four consecutive budgets that the stock market is turning red on the day of the budget. Last year in 2023, the market was in a loss of 2.8 percent on the day of the budget. Before that, there was a slight decline of 0.2 percent in 2022. At the same time, in 2021, the market was in a loss of 2.1 percent on the day of the budget. In the 2020 budget, the market had fallen by 4.2 percent.
There was a boom in the market on these 5 occasions
Before that, the stock market was seen rising continuously on the budget for 5 years. On the day of the budget in 2015, the market was 0.9 percent stronger. After that, on the day of the budget in 2016 and 2017, the market rose by a spectacular 3.8 percent and 3.9 percent. In the budget of 2018 and 2019, the market strengthened by 0.6 percent and 1.3 percent respectively. On the day of the first budget of the Modi government i.e. the budget of 2014, the market was in a loss of 1.8 percent.
This time too the market seems indifferent
If we look at it this way, out of the 10 full budgets that have been presented in the two terms of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government, the market has shown growth on 5 occasions and the market has been in decline on 5 occasions. The recent four years have been in decline. This shows that the budgets of the last four years have not been in line with the market’s expectations. This time too, the market is looking indifferent before the budget, which shows that the market does not have much expectations.
This improvement can take the market to new heights
However, experts have different opinions on this matter. For example, if we look at the argument of Jefferies’ global head of equity strategy Chris Wood in a report by Business Today, it shows that if some market-related reforms are made in the budget, then a great boom can be seen. Chris Wood advocates complete abolition of capital gains tax in India. He says that if this is done, then a historic rally will be seen in the market.
There can be a huge decline in this case
At the same time, he has also warned the market that if the government increases the capital gains tax, then a massive sell-off can be seen in the stock market. He says. There are very few chances that the government will increase the capital gains tax, but if it does so, the market will witness the same turmoil as was seen on the day of the election results last month.
Also read: Before the budget, the issue has come up again, how the salaried class is exploited the most in India!
