NITI Aayog Report: Today NITI Aayog Vice Chairman Suman Berry and CEO BVR Subramaniam presented NITI Aayog’s first quarterly report based on Indian trade. While presenting the report, the Vice Chairman of NITI Aayog said that for this report, a comparative study of India’s trade with the world’s trade has been done and data has been presented. The latest situation of demand supply has been given. Details have been given in which sectors and in which products there are opportunities or to come.
This report of NITI Aayog will provide correct information about future opportunities to the trading partners.
While disclosing the study pattern of the report, the CEO of NITI Aayog said that in this report, a study has been done on how we are doing separately in the field of merchandise and services. The composition, pattern of trade, trading partners, geopolitical conflicts and uncertainty have also been discussed in this report. The objective of this report is to provide correct facts to policy makers and researchers. In this, trade issues, challenges and opportunities have been discussed.
India ahead in service sector, behind in merchandise trade
Niti Aayog advisor and program director Pravakar Sahu, while explaining the gist of the report, said that we are lagging behind in merchandise trade whereas we are in surplus in the services sector. Even in services, we are dependent only on IT and business services like travel, transportation, insurance services, whose share in world trade is 50 percent whereas ours is less than 3 percent.
Trade World Quarterly said that there is a glitch between India’s exports and world demand.
Similarly, if we look at world demand and India’s exports, there is a lot of mismatch. For example, where global demand is high, supply from India is less and where global demand is low, Indian supply is more. In such a situation, we need change and reorientation in trade so that our trade deficit reduces. Through this trade report, we want to tell where opportunities are being created for India.
Total global exports vs Indian exports
The export of grains is only 0.7 percent of India’s total exports whereas the export of grains in global trade is 7 percent. Similarly, electrical equipment is 15 percent of our total exports whereas our share in the world is only 1 percent. Whereas China’s is 26 percent.
India can take advantage of China’s declining trade
According to the report of NITI Aayog, the cost of production is increasing in China. America has increased the tariff on imports from China. Apart from this, China has become an aging country. The average age of the citizens there is 37 years while that of India is 27. India should take advantage of all this. China’s opportunities and advantages are ending. In China, wage rates are increasing due to aging, but capita income has increased. The cost of inputs and intermediate products has also increased. The tariff war between China and America is also creating a lot of uncertainty, hence new players will hardly come to invest in China.
These 4 main things are in India’s favor for foreign investment – Market, Man Power, Stable Policies and Trump.
The labor intensive sector was earlier in China but now Vietnam is shifting it to Mexico and other countries. India should explore opportunities in this also because we have the work force. India’s biggest trading partner is North America followed by European countries while our trade with Asian countries is also increasing. India’s situation has improved with the arrival of Trump because China’s uncertainty has increased which will force multinational companies to come to India because India has a big market, man power and India’s policies are also stable.
NITI Aayog is in favor of changing the base year of GDP
Pravakar Sahu, advisor to NITI Aayog, said in response to a question from ABP News that the base year should be changed because it enables many sectors to be included in the accounting consideration which were not there earlier, like IT and digital sectors were not in the accounting system earlier. Prices also change with time for different sectors and components. Someone in the village is making something which results in output value addition but that too is not included in the accounting framework. Real data is available by changing the base.
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