Dollar-Rupee Level in 2025: Since the victory of Donald Trump in the US Presidential Elections, there has been a continuous decline in the Rupee against the Dollar. The Indian currency has fallen to around Rs 85 against one dollar. On December 2, the rupee fell to the level of Rs 84.76 against one dollar. The Dollar Index has been strengthening since Trump’s victory and after his entry into the White House in January, there are speculations that the Dollar will strengthen further and other currencies will weaken, including the Rupee. In such a situation, the question arises that how much will the rupee fall in the new year 2025?
Rupee will fall due to Donald Trump’s decision!
Donald Trump’s government may impose heavy tariffs on foreign goods coming to America, which will make it expensive for consumers to buy these goods. Due to this, there is a risk of inflation increasing. Due to the fear of Trump’s decision, the US Central Bank Federal Reserve will have to maintain interest rates at high rates. The dollar may become stronger due to this decision of the Central Bank. Donald Trump may impose a tariff of more than 10 percent on imports under his trade policy, which is likely to have an impact on the rupee. Due to this, further weakness in the rupee can be seen.
Foreign exchange reserves decreased by 50 billion dollars
The Reserve Bank of India is trying its best to stop the weakness in the rupee. RBI has sold dollars from its foreign currency reserves on a large scale to arrest the fall in the rupee. RBI’s foreign exchange reserves had reached a record high of $ 704.88 billion in the week ending September 27, 2024, which has come down to the level of $ 656.58 billion in the week ending November 22, 2024. That means there has been a decline of about 50 billion dollars in foreign exchange reserves in two months. The main reason for this is the selling of foreign investors in the Indian stock market in the months of October-November, while the second big reason includes the dollars sold by the RBI to support the rupee. Foreign investors sold shares worth 11 billion dollars in October and 1.5 billion shares in November.
Rupee will fall due to weakness in the economy!
The talk of weakening of the rupee is also being fueled by the fact that in October 2024, the retail inflation rate has crossed 6 percent and the food inflation rate has reached close to 11 percent. Contrary to the estimates of RBI and government, the economic growth rate has come down to 5.4 percent in the second quarter of the financial year 2024-25. The growth of the manufacturing sector has been the weakest. Due to this weakness in the Indian economy, there is a possibility of the rupee falling further in the coming months. If the rupee weakens, inflation in the country may increase further because imports will become expensive. Siddharth Khemka, Research Head, Wealth Management, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd, said, the GDP growth rate in the second quarter has fallen to a seven-month low of 5.4 percent. In such a situation, due to this weakness in the economy, the Indian Rupee has fallen to a record low.
Rupee will weaken further in 2025!
According to experts, if the rupee continues to weaken against the dollar, RBI may intervene further, which will lead to a reduction in foreign exchange reserves. Also, in the current global situation, there is very little possibility of the rupee strengthening in the year 2025; rather, the rupee may weaken further against the dollar.
read this also
GST Rate Hike: Government on backfoot after criticism over news of increase in GST rate, Finance Minister said – do not speculate
